Week Ahead: Fed set to cut rates

Forex
Week Ahead

Your essential guide to the week ahead 

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates this week, but there are still big unanswered questions that would help the markets understand the longer-term plan. 

1) Will the FOMC cut by 50bps or 25bps? Markets suggest a roughly 25% chance for a 50bps cut. 

2) Is this an insurance cut or the start of a sustained easing cycle? While Jerome Powell has signalled a cut in July, it’s lot less clear whether we should expect more cuts are we progress through the latter part of 2019. 

Apple earnings 

Earnings season continues and Apple is the main focus for traders this week.  

Analysts are broadly bullish on Apple ahead of the results – check the Analyst Recommendations tool in the platform for more information. 

Boris first week  

Britain’s new prime minister enjoys his first full week at the helm. The market will be wondering if there is any likelihood for changes to Brexit deals and deadlines based on his initial talks with the EU. Sterling pairs should remain on edge. 

Bank of England 

The Bank of England is still shackled by Brexit – and all the related uncertainty – but it increasingly seems to be moving with the rest of the world. Instead of the next move likely to be a hike, it looks much more likely the central bank is leaning towards cutting interest rates. We’ll find out more on Thursday at noon, UK time. 

Nonfarm payrolls 

Coming shortly after the Fed meeting these payroll numbers will be scrutinised as closely as ever. Job creation bounced back last month, dampening expectations for a 50bps cut – another strong print, combined with improving wage growth, may tell the market that the Fed is not under pressure to do any further easing

Corporate Diary

We’re in the thick of earnings season, so let’s look at the releases in the coming week:

29th JulyRyanair – Q1 2020 Earnings
After-Market30th JulyApple – Q3 Earnings
Pre-Market30th JulySamsung – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market30th JulyPfizer Inc – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market30th JulyProctor & Gamble – Q4 Earnings
Pre-Market30th JulySony – Q1 2020 Earnings
30th JulyBayer – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market30th JulyBP Plc – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market31st JulyGeneral Electric – Q2 Earnings
31st JulyAirbus SE – Q2 Earnings
After-Market31st JulyKraft-Heinz – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market31st JulySpotify – Q2 Earnings
13.00 BST07.00 BST31st JulyFiat Chrysler – Q2 Earnings
31st JulyBAE Systems Plc – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market 1st AugustShell Plc – Q2 Earnings
07.15 BST1st AugustRio Tinto – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market1st AugustGeneral Motors – Q2 Earnings
1st AugustBMW AQ – Q2 Earnings
07.00 BST1st August Barclays Plc – Q2 Earnings
07.00 BST2nd AugustRoyal Bank of Scotland – Q2 Earnings
2nd AugustBerkshire Hathaway – Q2 Earnings
Pre-Market2nd AugustExxonMobil Corp – Q2 Earnings
2nd August BT Group Plc – Q1 202 Earnings
XRay

Coming up on XRay this week. Tune in Live or watch on catch up.

17.00 GMT29th JulyBlonde Markets
15.30 GMT30th JulyAsset of the Day: Bullion Billions
13.00 GMT31st JulyAsset of the Day: Indices
09.00 GMT1st AugustBank of England special
12.30 GMT2nd August Nonfarm Payrolls LIVE
Key Economic Events

Mark these events in your calendar this week:

Tentative30th JulyBank of Japan interest rate decision
01.30 GMT31st JulyAustralia CPI inflation
18.00 GMT31st JulyFOMC interest rate decision
01.45 GMT1st AugustChina Caixin manufacturing PMI
11.00 GMT1st AugustBank of England interest rate decision
14.00 GMT1st AugustUS ISM manufacturing PMI
01.30 GMT2nd AugustAustralia retail sales
12.30 GMT2nd AugustNonfarm payrolls

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