Week ahead: US inflation set to drive further Fed speculation

US inflation will be in focus in the wake of last week’s Federal Reserve decision to rates by 50bps. CPI and PPI numbers are due, whilst the latest consumer inflation expectations report from the University of Michigan will also be parsed. Meanwhile earnings season on Wall Street continues with some of the more speculative names. 

US inflation 

Inflation remains one of the most important factors in markets today, so the big focus in the coming week is the latest US consumer price index. Headline CPI in March rose by 8.5% from a year before, the fastest annual gain since December 1981. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 6.5%. This week’s print is expected to be similarly high, but will it show signs of cooling or heating? The Fed raised rates by 50bps last week and was relatively cautious as it played down speculation for larger increases over the coming months. If inflation continues to build, the Fed may need to up its pace and this could leave stocks in danger of further selling pressure. CPI is out on Wednesday, whilst producer price inflation is due on Thursday. The University of Michigan inflation expectations survey is on Friday alongside the UoM consumer sentiment report. 

European sentiment 

A couple of sentiment updates for the Euro area will be of interest. Monday has the Sentix Investor Confidence report, whilst Tuesday sees the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment report. Then on Wednesday we get the lates EU economic forecasts for the bloc – the war in Ukraine and inflation are sure to be factors. 

Earnings  

Corporate earnings season on Wall Street continues with some of the more speculative names in the market. Peloton, Coinbase, Roblox and Beyond Meat are just a few of the large cap companies updating the market. On Wednesday, media giants Liberty Global and Walt Disney report earnings. 

Earnings Season 

09.05  10.05  11.05  12.05  13.05 
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) PMO 

 

The Trade Desk (TTD) E 

 

Viatris (VTRS) PMO 

 

Lemonade (LMND) AMC 

 

Upstart Holdings (UPST) AMC 

 

 Peloton (PTON) PMO 

 

Coinbase Global (COIN)AMC 

 

Roblox Corporation (RBLX)AMC 

 

Unity Software (U) AMC 

 

 Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) PMO 

 

Beyond Meat (BYND) AMC 

 

Liberty Global Class A (LBTYA) AMC 

 

Walt Disney (DIS) AMC 

  

   

 

Major economic data 

Sun May 8  7:30pm  JPY  Average Cash Earnings y/y 
  7:50pm  JPY  Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 
Mon May 9  2:45am  EUR  French Trade Balance 
  4:30am  EUR  Sentix Investor Confidence 
  8:30am  CAD  Building Permits m/m 
  10:00am  USD  Final Wholesale Inventories m/m 
  Tentative  USD  Loan Officer Survey 
  7:01pm  GBP  BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y 
  7:30pm  JPY  Household Spending y/y 
  9:30pm  AUD  NAB Business Confidence 
  11:35pm  JPY  10-y Bond Auction 
Tue May 10  10th-15th  EUR  German WPI m/m 
  4:00am  EUR  Italian Industrial Production m/m 
  5:00am  EUR  ZEW Economic Sentiment 
    EUR  German ZEW Economic Sentiment 
  10th-15th  CNH  M2 Money Supply y/y 
  10th-15th  CNH  New Loans 
  6:00am  USD  NFIB Small Business Index 
  Tentative  USD  IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 
  8:30pm  AUD  Westpac Consumer Sentiment 
  9:30pm  CNH  CPI y/y 
    CNH  PPI y/y 
  Tentative  CNH  Trade Balance 
  Tentative  CNH  USD-Denominated Trade Balance 
Wed May 11  1:00am  JPY  Leading Indicators 
  2:00am  EUR  German Final CPI m/m 
  5:00am  EUR  EU Economic Forecasts 
  Tentative  EUR  German 10-y Bond Auction 
  8:30am  USD  CPI m/m 
    USD  Core CPI m/m 
  Tentative  USD  Mortgage Delinquencies 
  10:30am  US OIL  Crude Oil Inventories 
  1:01pm  USD  10-y Bond Auction 
  2:00pm  USD  Federal Budget Balance 
  6:45pm  NZD  FPI m/m 
    NZD  Visitor Arrivals m/m 
  7:01pm  GBP  RICS House Price Balance 
  7:50pm  JPY  BOJ Summary of Opinions 
    JPY  Bank Lending y/y 
    JPY  Current Account 
  9:00pm  AUD  MI Inflation Expectations 
  11:00pm  NZD  Inflation Expectations q/q 
  11:35pm  JPY  30-y Bond Auction 
Thu May 12  1:00am  JPY  Economy Watchers Sentiment 
  2:00am  GBP  Prelim GDP q/q 
    GBP  Construction Output m/m 
    GBP  GDP m/m 
    GBP  Goods Trade Balance 
    GBP  Index of Services 3m/3m 
    GBP  Industrial Production m/m 
    GBP  Manufacturing Production m/m 
    GBP  Prelim Business Investment q/q 
  Tentative  EUR  Spanish 10-y Bond Auction 
  Tentative  GBP  10-y Bond Auction 
  7:30am  EUR  ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts 
  8:30am  USD  PPI m/m 
    USD  Core PPI m/m 
    USD  Unemployment Claims 
  Tentative  GBP  NIESR GDP Estimate 
  10:30am  Nat Gas  Natural Gas Storage 
  1:01pm  USD  30-y Bond Auction 
  4:00pm  USD  FOMC Financial Stability Report 
  6:30pm  NZD  BusinessNZ Manufacturing Index 
  7:50pm  JPY  M2 Money Stock y/y 
Fri May 13  2:45am  EUR  French Final CPI m/m 
  Tentative  CNH  Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 
  5:00am  EUR  Industrial Production m/m 
  8:30am  USD  Import Prices m/m 
  10:00am  USD  Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 
    USD  Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 
  Tentative  USD  Treasury Currency Report