Week Ahead: Trump and Biden to face off in first Presidential Debate

It’s a big week for financial markets, as the first US Presidential Debate kicks off on Tuesday. Donald Trump has spent a long time attacking ‘Sleepy Joe’s’ mental prowess, but has he accidentally set the bar too low for his opponent, or will Biden’s verbal blunders see him put on a poor show? 

After the two candidates have argued about the economy we’ll get another update on the labour market when the nonfarm payrolls report is published on Friday. 

Fireworks likely at first US Presidential Debate

Headline risks surrounding the US Presidential Election will shoot higher this week as President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden get ready for the first Presidential Debate on September 29th. Topics are liable to change in response to the latest new events, but at the time of writing the debate commission had announced the following itinerary: 

  • The Trump and Biden Records 
  • The Supreme Court 
  • Covid-19 
  • The Economy 
  • Race and Violence in our Cities 
  • The Integrity of the Election 

It’s a list of huge controversies, but even with such important topics, can the debates do much to swing the opinion of such a highly-polarized electorate? 

Biden leads Trump by 7.1% in the national polls according to our election poll tracker. Much has been made of his age and his verbal blunders and there’s a risk he’ll find himself flattened by Trump’s aggressive debating style. 

However, thanks to months of the President attacking ‘Sleepy Joe’s’ mental capacity, some Republicans fear that Trump has actually set the bar incredibly low for Biden. 

Nonfarm Payrolls

A few days after Trump and Biden have argued over the state of the economy, we’ll get another look at the health of the labour market. Payrolls growth slightly undershot forecasts in August, coming in at 1.371 million against expectations for 1.4 million. 

Of the more-than 22 million Americans who lost their jobs towards the start of the pandemic, 11.5 million of them are still out of work. There’s still a long way to go until the labour market has recovered and some analysts are expecting the pace of job creation to have softened again. 

Inflation, Caixin and ISM PMIs, finalised growth figures

Other data in focus next week includes Germany and Eurozone flash inflation reports and the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Thursday will be a busy day for US data, with core PCE, personal income, personal spending, initial and continuing jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI all in the docket. 

Finalised quarterly growth figures from the US and UK and finalised manufacturing PMIs from Eurozone member states and the UK could garner some interest if the figures differ notably from initial readings. 

Earnings: McCormick, Micron, PepsiCo, Constellation Brands

Tuesday sees the latest earnings reports from McCormick & Co before the New York open and Micron Technology after the close. 

McCormick has fallen -12% from its September 1st peak, but remains 65% above its March lows. Both hedge funds and company insiders have been selling the stock recently, which is trading -9% below its average price target on Wall Street. 

Micron Technology, on the other hand, has a 27% upside, although it has also experienced heavy selling in the past quarter. 

On Thursday PepsiCo and Constellation Brands both report before the opening bell. After the March recovery PepsiCo has struggled to hold above opening levels and is currently down over -4% on the year. You can download the latest research on the stock by Thompson Reuters in the platform. 

Constellation Brands is virtually flat for the year. Analysts see a 9% upside for the stock. 

Highlights on XRay this Week 

Read the full schedule of financial market analysis and training.

17.00 UTC 28⁠-⁠Sep Blonde Markets
17.00 UTC 29⁠⁠⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Webinar: Money Management and Trading Psychology
11.00 UTC 30⁠⁠⁠-⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sep Midweek Lunch Wrap
17.00 UTC 01-Oct Election2020 Weekly

Key Events this Week

Watch out for the biggest events on the economic calendar this week. A full economic and corporate events calendar is available in the platform.

23.50 UTC 28-Sep Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions
Pre-Market 29-Sep McCormick & Co – Q3 2020
12.00 UTC 29-Sep German Flash Inflation
14.00 UTC 29-Sep US CB Consumer Confidence
23.50 UTC 29-Sep Japan Preliminary Industrial Production / Retail Sales
After-Market 29-Sep Micron Technology – Q4 2020
01.45 UTC 30-Sep China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
06.00 UTC 30-Sep UK Finalised Quarterly GDP
09.00 UTC 30-Sep Eurozone Flash Inflation Data
12.30 UTC 30-Sep US Finalised Quarterly GDP
14.30 UTC 30-Sep US EIA Crude Oil Inventories
07.15 – 08.00 UTC 01-Oct Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMIs
08.30 UTC 01-Oct UK Final Manufacturing PMI
Pre-Market 01-Oct PepsiCo – Q3 2020
Pre-Market 01-Oct Constellation Brands – Q2 2021
12.30 UTC 01-Oct US Core PCE, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Jobless Claims
14.00 UTC 01-Oct US ISM Manufacturing PMI
14.30 UTC 01-Oct US EIA Natural Gas Storage
01.30 UTC 02-Oct Australia Retail Sales
12.30 UTC 02-Oct US Nonfarm Payrolls Report
14.00 UTC 02-Oct Finalised University of Michigan Sentiment